Hurricane Lowell holds Category 4 strength as Hawaiian Islands await weekend turn

Hurricane Lowell, one of the most powerful storms to threaten the central Pacific this season, has weakened slightly to a Category 4 hurricane but remains a serious concern for the Hawaiian Islands, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's advisory issued at 11pm HST on Friday, 4 September [2]. At that time, Lowell's eye was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 161.9 West — about 625 miles south-southwest of Lihue, Kauai, and 610 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, according to the advisory [2]. The storm was moving west at just 7mph, with maximum sustained winds of 155mph and a minimum central pressure of 925 millibars, based on data gathered by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft [2]. The storm's evolution has been rapid. Two days earlier, on the morning of 2 September, Lowell had explosively intensified to Category 5 strength, with sustained winds near 160mph and a central pressure of 927mb, when it was positioned much further east near 13.3N, 154.3W — about 445 miles south of Hilo, according to Maui Now's report citing CPHC data [1]. That report noted forecasters expected Lowell to remain a major hurricane for several days [1]. The latest advisory confirms that trajectory is holding, though with some loss of intensity. Forecasters say some further fluctuations in strength are possible over the next day or so, followed by a gradual weakening trend by early next week [2]. Hurricane-force winds now extend up to 60 miles from the centre and tropical-storm-force winds up to 160 miles — both a notable expansion from the wind field reported on 2 September, when hurricane-force winds reached only 35 miles out and tropical-storm-force winds 90 miles [1][2]. The key question for the islands remains the storm's track. Both sources flag an expected sharp turn to the north or north-northeast, with the CPHC's latest advisory placing that turn on Sunday [2], while the earlier discussion cited by Maui Now placed it four to five days out and noted large spread among forecast models on how sharp the turn would be, alongside an eastward shift in the long-range track envelope [1]. As of Friday night, there were no coastal watches or warnings in effect, though the CPHC says watches could be required for the westernmost Hawaiian Islands as soon as Saturday [2]. Rainfall remains a concern regardless of the exact track. The latest advisory forecasts 3 to 6 inches for Kauai and the Big Island, with isolated totals exceeding 10 inches, and 2 to 4 inches for Maui, with isolated totals up to 8 inches — rain capable of producing flash flooding and mudslides in steep terrain [2]. Both sources also warn of life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across the islands from swells generated by Lowell [1][2]. Adding to the uncertainty, the National Weather Service has noted that Lowell is not travelling alone: Hurricane Karina is also active in the central Pacific over the coming days, complicating the outlook for the Labor Day weekend [1]. What to watch next: whether the CPHC issues watches for the westernmost Hawaiian Islands as flagged for Saturday, and how sharp Sunday's forecast northward turn actually proves to be.