Hurricane Lowell tracks closer to Kauai as watch replaces earlier warning

Hurricane Lowell, tracked by the estate's monitoring instruments at 100 knots near 17.0, -163.0, is now bearing down on Hawaii's western islands with its forecast track having shifted east overnight, according to the Hawai'i Emergency Management Agency (HiEMA) [2]. That shift triggered a Hurricane Watch for Kaua'i County as of 5pm Sunday, meaning hurricane conditions are now considered possible in the coming days, according to [2]. As of that 5pm update, Lowell was a category 3 storm with sustained winds of 120 miles per hour, its centre positioned 50 miles south-southwest of Līhu'e, according to [2]. The storm is expected to pass close to Ni'ihau and Kaua'i on Monday night and into early Tuesday morning, arriving as a category 2 or possibly category 1 hurricane by the time it nears the islands, according to [2]. Earlier reporting from Sunday morning had Lowell as a category 3 system with 125 mph winds moving north-west at six miles per hour, with its centre projected to pass roughly 130 miles west of Ni'ihau or 170 miles west of Kaua'i, according to [1]. The overnight eastward shift in track brings the storm meaningfully closer to Kaua'i County than that earlier projection suggested. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Kaua'i County, with tropical storm conditions expected within 36 hours of the Sunday evening update, according to [2]. Damaging wind gusts up to 74 mph are possible in Kaua'i County and up to 40 mph on O'ahu on Monday and Tuesday, according to [2]. Ni'ihau, Kaua'i and O'ahu may see extremely dangerous surf on southern and western exposed shores, with high surf statewide on those two days, according to [2]. Rainfall is the other major hazard flagged by emergency managers: HiEMA forecasts isolated local totals as high as 14 inches for Ni'ihau and Kaua'i, 12 inches for southeast Big Island, 8 inches for windward Maui, and 2 to 6 inches elsewhere in the islands, with heavy rain likely beginning Sunday afternoon and flash floods and landslides possible in steep terrain, according to [2]. Hawaii has declared a state of emergency over the storm, according to [1]. Lowell is the third system to threaten the islands in just over three weeks, following Tropical Storm Moke and Hurricane Lala, the latter of which caused at least $43m in infrastructure damage and $4.6m in home damage on the Big Island, according to Hawaii governor Josh Green as reported in [1]. It also arrives amid an unusually active central Pacific season: Lowell, Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Marie were all churning simultaneously as of Saturday, the region's first triple-hurricane stretch in a decade, with a fourth potential system being watched off Mexico, according to [1]. The Pacific typically sees only eight hurricanes a year, according to the National Hurricane Center as cited in [1]. The activity coincides with a UN warning that this year's El Niño is forecast to become the strongest in four decades, described in a Thursday statement as "supersized before our eyes," with the world in "the danger zone of extreme weather," according to [1]. NOAA has put the odds of this being the strongest El Niño in 70 years at 69%, according to [1]. Residents across the islands are being told to prepare for possible power outages and to review emergency plans, with HiEMA issuing updates at 5am, 11am, 5pm and 11pm HST, according to [2]. What to watch next: HiEMA's next scheduled update, due Monday 7 September at 8:45am HST, should clarify whether Lowell's track continues shifting toward Kaua'i and whether the Hurricane Watch is upgraded to a warning.