Hurricane Lowell Weakens Slightly But Still Turning North Toward Hawaii's Western Islands

Hurricane Lowell, tracked by Wayne's own instruments at 110 knots (roughly 127 mph) near 14.4°N, -163.7°W, is in the middle of a slow northward turn that forecasters expect to complete on Sunday, according to the Hawai‘i Emergency Management Agency (HIEMA) [1]. As of that agency's 4:35 p.m. Saturday update, Lowell was a category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph, centred 630 miles south-southwest of Līhuʻe, with the track suggesting it would pass just west of Niʻihau and Kauaʻi overnight Monday into early Tuesday [1]. A separate Fox Weather report, filed slightly earlier, had Lowell as a Category 3 with 125 mph winds and a central pressure of 943 MB, located about 595 miles south-southwest of Lihue and moving northwest at 6 mph [2]. The two readings are not necessarily contradictory — hurricanes fluctuate in intensity, and HIEMA's figure is the more recent of the two — but the discrepancy underlines that Lowell's strength has been changing quickly and should not be treated as fixed [1][2]. That volatility has been the story of Lowell's whole life cycle. After forming in the Eastern Pacific and being named on 27 August, the storm strengthened steadily before "exploding in intensity" on a Wednesday, according to Fox Weather, with maximum sustained winds jumping 70 mph in 24 hours — from 90 mph to a peak of 160 mph [2]. That made Lowell the first Category 5 hurricane in the Central Pacific since Hurricane Walaka in October 2018 [2]. The National Hurricane Center said Friday it expected Lowell to remain a major hurricane through Monday morning before weakening, though it should hold onto hurricane strength into Tuesday as it passes near the western Hawaiian islands [2]. The turn itself is being driven by a dip in the jet stream over the Pacific, which is weakening the ridge that had been steering Lowell westward and pulling it north instead, Fox Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said [2]. Governor Josh Green has declared a state of emergency, and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Kauai and Niihau, with a Hurricane Watch covering the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals [2]. Both sources flag the same core hazards: high surf statewide Monday and Tuesday, with the most dangerous conditions on southern and western shores of Niʻihau, Kauaʻi and Oʻahu; damaging wind gusts up to 75 mph in Kauaʻi County and up to 50 mph on Oʻahu; and heavy rain beginning Sunday afternoon that could trigger flash floods and landslides in steep terrain [1]. Rainfall forecasts point to isolated totals over 10 inches on Niʻihau, Kauaʻi and southeast Big Island, with waves reaching 14 feet already prompting High Surf Advisories across the islands [1][2]. A direct hit on Kauaʻi "cannot be ruled out," Norcross said Friday, though he called it unlikely, with a Kona Low-style pattern of heavy rain and wind the more probable outcome if Lowell stays farther west [2]. HIEMA is urging residents across the state to review emergency plans and prepare for possible power outages, noting the track could still change, with its next scheduled update due Sunday at 11 a.m. HST [1]. What to watch next: Sunday's update from HIEMA and the National Hurricane Center, which should confirm whether Lowell has completed its northward turn and firm up how close it will pass to Kauaʻi and Niʻihau early Tuesday.