Hurricane Lowell Weakens to Category 3 but Turns North Toward Kauai, Tropical Storm Warning Issued

Hurricane Lowell was located at 14.7N 163.8W, about 580 miles south-southwest of Lihue, Hawaii, as of 5am HST Sunday, according to [2]. The storm was moving north-northwest at 6 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph and a minimum central pressure of 943 mb, making it a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, according to [2]. That reading matches the estate's own tracking instrument, which flagged Lowell at 110 kt (roughly 125 mph) at the same coordinates — confirming the storm has held major-hurricane strength as it turns toward Hawaii. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Kauai County, covering Kauai and Niihau, and a Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument between Nihoa and French Frigate Shoals, according to [2]. The National Hurricane Center expects a turn toward north and north-northeast with increasing forward speed over the next couple of days, carrying Lowell's centre across the Marine National Monument, just west of the main Hawaiian Islands, on Monday night, according to [2]. Governor Josh Green has declared a state of emergency ahead of the storm's closest approach, according to [1]. "We encourage everyone to remain prepared and continue following official weather updates," Green said, according to [1]. Rainfall is the chief concern. The NHC forecasts 6 to 10 inches for Kauai, with isolated totals up to 14 inches, and 4 to 8 inches for the Big Island, with isolated totals up to 12 inches, according to [2]. Maui is expected to see 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals up to 8 inches, and the remaining islands 2 to 4 inches, according to [2]. The Center has warned this rainfall "may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across Kauai County and portions of the Big Island," according to [2]. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Kauai County by Monday afternoon or evening, with hurricane conditions possible in the Marine National Monument between Nihoa and French Frigate Shoals from Monday night, according to [2]. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 50 miles from Lowell's centre, with tropical-storm-force winds reaching out 175 miles, according to [2]. Winds atop hills and ridgelines could run up to 30 percent stronger than near-surface readings, according to [2]. Storm surge combined with tides is also expected to flood normally dry coastal areas, according to [2], though the source text is cut off before further surge detail is given. High Surf Advisories are in place across the islands, with waves forecast to reach 14 feet, according to [1]. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said a direct hit on Kauai "cannot be ruled out," although it remains unlikely, and that if Lowell tracks farther west it would behave "more like a Kona Low," bringing strong gusts and heavy rain to the southern shores of Kauai and Oahu from Monday evening into Tuesday morning, according to [1]. Norcross attributed the storm's sharp northward turn to a dip in the jet stream: "We are seeing a dip in the jet stream is really diving near Hawaii, and that's exactly what's going to grab Lowell and pull it north," he said, according to [1]. Lowell briefly reached Category 5 strength this past week, its winds surging 70 mph in 24 hours from 90 mph to a peak of 160 mph — the first Central Pacific Category 5 since Hurricane Walaka in 2018, according to [1]. It has since weakened to Category 3 but is expected to remain a major hurricane through Monday morning before gradual weakening, maintaining at least hurricane strength into Tuesday, according to [1] and [2]. It follows Hurricane Lala and Tropical Storm Moke, which struck Hawaii earlier this season, according to [1]. What to watch next: whether Lowell's track holds west of the main islands as forecast, or shifts east toward a more direct hit on Kauai — the NHC's next advisory should clarify.