Hurricane Nolo Bears Down on Big Island With Threat of 'Catastrophic' Flooding

Hurricane Nolo, now carrying sustained winds of 65 knots (roughly 75 mph), is on a forecast track toward Hawaii Island, with meteorologists warning of catastrophic flooding on ground already saturated by an earlier storm this season, Hurricane Lala, according to [1] and [2]. As of 11 a.m. Wednesday, September 23, the storm — then a tropical storm with 40 mph winds — was positioned 310 miles south of South Point, Hawaii, and about 500 miles south-southeast of Honolulu, moving west-northwest at 6 mph, according to [1]. The National Hurricane Center has since forecast a sharp turn to the north, and Hawaii's Emergency Management Agency says forecasters now expect Nolo to make its closest pass south of Hawaii Island as a major hurricane on Saturday, according to [2]. The rainfall forecast is the primary concern. The National Weather Service in Honolulu says Hawaii Island could see widespread totals of 15 to 20 inches, with isolated pockets in the southeast reaching as high as 35 inches, according to [2]. Maui is forecast to receive 5 to 10 inches, with isolated totals up to 20 inches, while Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi and Oʻahu could see up to 4 inches and Kauaʻi up to 2 inches, according to [2]. AccuWeather estimates put three-day totals at 24 to 36 inches at higher elevations on the Big Island, according to [1]. Both sources stress that the rainfall rate — not just the total volume — is what forecasters expect to drive the worst damage. "Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are possible from rainfall totals in excess of a foot, especially in areas of steep terrain," the hurricane center said, as reported in [1]. Catastrophic flooding is considered possible on Hawaii Island specifically on Friday and Saturday, with life-threatening landslides likely in steep terrain on both the Big Island and Maui, according to [2]. A hurricane watch covers all of Hawaii County, meaning winds of 74 mph or stronger are possible within 48 hours, according to [2]. John Bravender, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Honolulu, said the southeast Big Island is "vulnerable due to ongoing recovery from the flooding during (Hurricane) Lala," according to [1] — meaning Nolo threatens to compound damage from a storm the island has not yet fully recovered from. Hawaii's Emergency Management Agency is telling residents on the Big Island and Maui to review family emergency plans, check supplies, prepare properties for flooding and wind, and consider evacuating to safer shelter — particularly in southeast Hawaii Island — while also preparing for power outages, according to [2]. The hurricane center's own message, issued Tuesday, was blunt: "The time to prepare for significant heavy rain and flooding impacts on the Big Island is now," according to [1]. Swells generated by the storm are expected to arrive Friday and build through the weekend, creating what forecasters describe as life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, according to [1]. The storm's exact track and intensity remain subject to change; Hawaii's Emergency Management Agency lists its next scheduled update for noon on September 24, according to [2]. What to watch next: the noon update on September 24 from Hawaii's Emergency Management Agency, and whether Nolo's track continues to bend toward the Big Island as a major hurricane by Saturday, per [2].