Hurricane Nolo Nears Hawaii as Third Major Storm in Months Threatens Battered Islands

Hurricane Nolo, tracked at 90 knots near 16.9, -155.3, is forecast to bring what US officials call life-threatening and catastrophic flooding to Hawaii, according to [1]. The storm was roughly 200 miles south of the Big Island as of Friday morning and expected to head north-east, bringing tropical storm conditions by evening before strengthening into a major hurricane on Saturday, according to [1]. The National Hurricane Center said rainfall from Nolo "could produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain," according to [1]. Forecasters expect as much as 25 inches of rain in places, along with large and damaging waves along the coast, even though the storm's current track has it moving west on Saturday without a direct hit on the islands, according to [1]. Hawaii has activated more than 230 national guard members and closed schools ahead of the storm, according to [1]. The state's emergency management agency has told residents and visitors to review emergency plans, prepare properties for flooding, high winds and power outages, and consider evacuating, according to [1]. The timing is grim. Nolo is the third major tropical storm to menace the islands in recent months, after Hurricane Lala in August and Hurricane Lowell in early September, according to [2]. Those two storms flooded homes and roads, downed trees and knocked out power across the chain, and more than 500 homes have already been damaged or destroyed this year, according to [2]. Nolo is forecast to dump its heaviest rain on an area hit hard by Lala, where some residents remain displaced, according to [1]. "We're slowly starting to rebuild, but now it's almost like if this storm hits, it'll smash us back down," Troy Gacayan, a high school teacher and pastor in the affected area, told Honolulu Civil Beat, according to [1]. Hawaii's governor, Josh Green, requested an emergency disaster declaration for four counties earlier this week to access federal funds, a request that as of this reporting still awaited approval from Donald Trump, according to [1]. The pattern behind the run of storms is not random, according to [2]. Hawaii typically escapes direct hurricane hits — it has had none since Iniki in 1992, which destroyed or damaged roughly 70% of homes and businesses on Kauai — largely because the islands are a small target and approaching storms usually cross cooler water that weakens them, according to [2]. This year a strengthening El Niño has warmed sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific and pushed storm formation further south and west, putting systems on a track that can run westward into Hawaii, according to Matthew Rosencrans of NOAA, cited in [2]. Climate scientist Dr Marc Alessi noted that oceans are absorbing the vast majority of excess heat from greenhouse pollution, adding energy to storms, according to [2]. Hawaii senator Brian Schatz told Congress this week that "there is a reason these destructive disasters are piling up one after another," pointing to the warming planet, according to [1]. Rosencrans warned that hurricane season still has weeks to run and that emergency officials "need to reset and regard any potential upcoming impacts," according to [2]. What to watch next: whether Nolo's track shifts back toward a direct hit as it approaches this weekend, and whether Trump approves Hawaii's disaster declaration request.