Hurricane Nolo Pulls Away From Hawaii, But Flood Threat Lingers

Hurricane Nolo was moving away from the Hawaiian islands on Sunday, but the threat of heavy rain, flash flooding and strong winds persisted in areas of the island chain still recovering from previous storms, according to [1]. The storm was about 365 miles south-south-west of Honolulu and moving away from the Big Island at roughly 12mph, with maximum sustained winds that had risen to 115mph, according to [1]. That is consistent with the estate's own instrument reading of 95kt near 23.3, -170.4, which prompted this file. The US National Hurricane Center said Nolo was expected to strengthen further and turn north-west by Sunday night, though its centre would remain well south and south-west of the islands as it approached the Papahānaumokuākea marine national monument early this week, according to [1]. Despite moving away, outer bands could still bring life-threatening flooding and mudslides, with parts of the Big Island possibly getting up to 20 inches of rain, according to [1]. Heavy rain had already fallen across the southern Big Island on Saturday, closing sections of the Mamalahoa highway near Naalehu, where national guard members were seen guiding a resident through flooded streets, according to [1]. More than 120 guard members were activated on the Big Island, part of roughly 400 statewide after the governor's emergency proclamation, according to [1]. Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, warned people against venturing into "the dangerous flooding environment" given the added risk of downed trees and power lines, according to [1]. Donald Trump approved an emergency declaration authorising Fema to coordinate assistance, and Hawaiian Electric crews that had been restoring power in Kauai after this month's Hurricane Lowell were redirected back to Oahu, Maui and the Big Island in response to Nolo, according to [1]. Nolo is the third major tropical storm to menace Hawaii in recent months, after Hurricanes Lala in August and Lowell in early September, which together have damaged or destroyed more than 500 homes, according to [2]. Hawaii has not suffered a direct hurricane landfall since Iniki in 1992, and the islands' usual escape from storms owes more to geographic isolation and cooler surrounding waters than to any "force field," according to Dr Nicholas Grondin, cited in [2]. This year's exception is being driven by an El Niño pattern forecast to strengthen toward possible historic intensity, which is shifting storm formation further south and west and pushing systems on a track toward Hawaii, according to Matthew Rosencrans of Noaa, cited in [2]. National Weather Service lead forecaster Bob Oravec said Pacific storm activity is running above average for what is already the peak of hurricane season, consistent with El Niño years, according to [1]. Climate scientist Dr Marc Alessi, cited in [2], said warming oceans mean Pacific storms are likely to carry more moisture and stronger winds going forward. Separately, Hurricane Polo was approaching Mexico's Baja California peninsula as a category 3 storm with 125mph winds, expected to make landfall on Monday, according to [1] — a second, unrelated system tracked in the same report. What to watch next: whether Nolo's track takes it further from the Papahānaumokuākea monument as forecast, and whether Hawaii's rainfall totals on the Big Island approach the 20-inch upper estimate given in [1].