Hurricane Polo, One of the Season's Strongest, Threatens Mexico's Pacific Coast with Flooding and Mudslides

Hurricane Polo, tracked by the estate's monitoring at 140 kt near 16.4, -103.0 off Mexico's Pacific coast, has been one of the strongest storms of the season, according to the BBC [2]. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that flew into the storm on Tuesday recorded sustained winds near 180 mph, with stronger gusts, before Polo was downgraded from category 5 to category 4 on Wednesday morning, according to [2]. The US National Hurricane Center in Miami separately put Polo's winds at 160 mph as of Wednesday night, describing it as "extremely dangerous," according to [1]. The storm is not forecast to make landfall. "So far, the information we have is that (Polo) will not make a direct landfall on the coast," Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Tuesday, according to [2], though she urged residents along the Pacific coast to remain vigilant and flagged Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán as states at particular risk. The National Hurricane Center forecast rainfall of 4 to 6 inches (10 to 15 cm) through Thursday, with up to 8 inches possible in some areas, according to [1] and [2]. Guerrero state, which has been repeatedly hit by hurricanes in recent years, was flagged by the hurricane centre as facing the greatest risk of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, according to [1]. The region under threat is largely rural and mountainous, dotted with small tourist towns and ports, and residents there routinely say authorities leave them to cope alone during disasters, according to [1]. Mexico's government has ordered evacuations in some areas, opened shelters, and deployed thousands of military and Red Cross personnel as a precaution, according to [1]. In Lázaro Cárdenas, Michoacán, restaurant owner Concepción López Villegas was reinforcing her seaside business as waves began hitting local beaches. "We're worried and trying to protect our businesses," she said. "And of course, we're sad because it's our heritage, our legacy that from one moment to another could be destroyed," according to [1]. Forecasters attribute Polo's intensity to an ongoing El Niño that scientists say is now the strongest on record, according to [2]. Sea surface temperatures in a key central-eastern Pacific region were 3.05C above average on 19 September, exceeding the previous record of 3.02C set during the strong 2015 El Niño, with the peak of the current event not expected until later this year, according to [2]. NOAA described the ocean conditions feeding Polo as "very conducive" to further strengthening, according to [2]. Separately, forecasters were also tracking Tropical Storm Nolo, roughly 295 miles south of Hawaii's Big Island, expected to become a hurricane by Thursday night and approach the islands by Friday or Saturday with up to 20 to 30 inches of rain, prompting school and office closures on the Big Island and in Maui County, according to [1]. Meteorologist John Bravender warned the rain risk was compounded by ground already saturated from Hurricane Lala in August, according to [1]. This is a separate system from Polo and not directly linked to the Mexico threat. What to watch next: whether Polo's track holds offshore as forecast through Thursday, and whether Guerrero's rainfall totals trigger the mudslides authorities are bracing for.