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Hurricane Trudy forecast to become major hurricane off Mexico's Pacific coast this weekend
The US National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for southwestern Mexico as Trudy, currently an 80-knot hurricane, is forecast to intensify significantly before nearing the coast.
Hurricane Trudy was located at 13.7N 101.7W as of 2100Z Thursday, with maximum sustained winds of 80 knots (90 mph), according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami [1]. The storm's intensification had "temporarily paused," forecaster Beven wrote in Discussion Number 10, issued at 3pm CST on Thursday 15 October [1].
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated the storm reported maximum flight-level winds of 84 knots at 700 millibars and a central pressure of about 978 millibars, according to the NHC [1]. Satellite imagery showed an attempt by the storm to form an eye, though it had not yet fully cleared, the agency said [1]. Forecasters attributed the pause in strengthening to a tongue of dry air wrapping into the cyclone from the north [1].
Despite the temporary lull, the NHC said conditions "appear favorable for steady to rapid development during the next 24-36 h" and forecast Trudy to reach a peak intensity of 125 knots — a major hurricane — by Saturday morning, 17 October [1]. The forecast track takes the storm north-northwestward, with the centre expected to remain just offshore of the Mexican coast, though the agency cautioned that "any track to the right of the official forecast... would bring the center onshore" [1].
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a portion of the southwestern Mexican coast, with additional watches likely to be issued further up the coast, the NHC said [1]. In its key messages, the agency said Trudy "is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend," with an increasing risk of wind, rain and storm surge impacts [1].
Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy is expected to affect the coast between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend, according to the NHC, which warned the rain "may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides" in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, particularly in areas of steep terrain [1]. Large swells generated by the storm are forecast to begin affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico from Friday, continuing through the weekend, and could produce "life-threatening surf and rip current conditions," the agency said [1].
According to the NHC's forecast track, Trudy is expected to reach 95 knots by Friday morning, intensify further to 115 knots by Friday evening, and peak at 125 knots early Saturday before encountering increasing southwesterly wind shear that is expected to halt development and cause weakening through early the following week [1]. By Tuesday 20 October, the storm is forecast to weaken to 50 knots as it moves further offshore into the eastern Pacific, according to the agency's five-day outlook [1].
The NHC noted that any track further offshore than currently forecast would allow Trudy to remain stronger for longer, while a track that brought the storm's centre over land would cause rapid weakening and possibly dissipation [1].
