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Hurricane Trudy Skirts Mexican Coast With 105mph Winds, Weakening Forecast By Tonight
Hurricane warnings remain in force along a stretch of Mexico's Pacific coast as Trudy brings heavy rain, dangerous surf and a storm surge threat, though forecasters expect the system to begin losing strength later today.
Hurricane Trudy was moving northwestward parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico on Sunday morning, with maximum sustained winds of 105mph (165km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center [1]. At 5am MST (1200 UTC), the storm's centre was located near latitude 18.9N, longitude 106.6W, about 150 miles west of Manzanillo and 120 miles south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, according to the NHC's intermediate advisory [1].
The hurricane was tracking northwest at 10mph, with a turn toward the west-northwest expected overnight, the NHC said [1]. On the forecast track, Trudy's centre is expected to remain near the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico through Sunday evening before passing south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday, according to the advisory [1].
The Mexican government has discontinued all coastal watches and warnings south of Manzanillo, the NHC reported [1]. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the coast from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes, while a tropical storm warning covers the coast from north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas and the Islas Marías, according to the advisory [1].
Forecasters said little change in strength was expected through Sunday morning, but rapid weakening was forecast to begin by Sunday night, according to the NHC [1]. The minimum central pressure was estimated at 970 millibars, with hurricane-force winds extending up to 30 miles from the centre and tropical-storm-force winds reaching out as far as 105 miles, the advisory said [1].
The National Hurricane Center warned of a dangerous storm surge accompanied by damaging waves in areas of onshore winds within the warning zones [1]. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions were also expected along affected stretches of coast as swells generated by Trudy reach the shore, according to the advisory [1].
Rainfall remains a significant hazard. The NHC forecast 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated totals as high as 12 inches, along the southwest Mexican coast in the states of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco through the weekend, warning this could produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides in areas of steep terrain [1]. Outer rain bands were expected to bring 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches, to the coastal states of Guerrero and Nayarit, raising the risk of localised flash flooding, according to the advisory [1].
Hurricane conditions, particularly in gusts, were considered likely in the hurricane warning area on Sunday morning, while tropical storm conditions were expected across the mainland Mexico portion of the tropical storm warning zone during the morning and in the Islas Marías by the afternoon, the NHC said [1]. The agency directed residents elsewhere in southwestern and west-central Mexico to continue monitoring the storm's progress and to consult products from their national meteorological service for local guidance [1].
The National Hurricane Center said its next complete advisory on Trudy would be issued at 8am MST [1].
